Resale value projector
Forward project a variant's secondary market median 1, 3, and 5 years out using its own historical CAGR and observed volatility. Confidence band widens with horizon, reflecting compounding uncertainty.
Hermès Kelly
25 · Epsom · Noir (Black) · Gold Hardware
5-year projection with confidence band
| Year | Low band | Central | High band | vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $21,080 | $24,014 | $26,948 | -1.8% |
| Year 2 | $16,138 | $23,585 | $32,439 | -3.5% |
| Year 3 | $11,350 | $23,163 | $41,200 | -5.3% |
| Year 4 | $7,416 | $22,749 | $54,545 | -7.0% |
| Year 5 | $4,531 | $22,342 | $74,752 | -8.6% |
Methodology
Forward CAGR is a weighted blend of this variant's own observed CAGR 1y/3y/5y, with longer windows weighted higher (50% × 5y, 30% × 3y, 20% × 1y). This respects long-term trend over short-term noise. If only some windows have data, the blend re-normalizes over available terms.
Volatility is derived from the standard deviation of the 90-day aggregation and annualized with a sqrt-time factor. Confidence band low/high = forward CAGR ± 1 volatility band, compounded over the horizon.
This is a backward-looking statistical projection. Future returns may differ from historical patterns — brand strategy changes, supply rationing changes, and macro shocks can break the pattern.
Read the CAGR methodology or compare with Bag vs S&P 500.