Resale value projector
Forward project a variant's secondary market median 1, 3, and 5 years out using its own historical CAGR and observed volatility. Confidence band widens with horizon, reflecting compounding uncertainty.
Hermès Birkin
30 · Togo · Noir (Black) · Palladium Hardware
5-year projection with confidence band
| Year | Low band | Central | High band | vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $23,937 | $26,580 | $29,222 | +0.6% |
| Year 2 | $19,747 | $26,736 | $34,782 | +1.2% |
| Year 3 | $15,256 | $26,893 | $43,315 | +1.8% |
| Year 4 | $11,145 | $27,051 | $55,875 | +2.4% |
| Year 5 | $7,741 | $27,210 | $74,237 | +3.0% |
Methodology
Forward CAGR is a weighted blend of this variant's own observed CAGR 1y/3y/5y, with longer windows weighted higher (50% × 5y, 30% × 3y, 20% × 1y). This respects long-term trend over short-term noise. If only some windows have data, the blend re-normalizes over available terms.
Volatility is derived from the standard deviation of the 90-day aggregation and annualized with a sqrt-time factor. Confidence band low/high = forward CAGR ± 1 volatility band, compounded over the horizon.
This is a backward-looking statistical projection. Future returns may differ from historical patterns — brand strategy changes, supply rationing changes, and macro shocks can break the pattern.
Read the CAGR methodology or compare with Bag vs S&P 500.