Resale value projector
Forward project a variant's secondary market median 1, 3, and 5 years out using its own historical CAGR and observed volatility. Confidence band widens with horizon, reflecting compounding uncertainty.
Chanel Classic Flap
medium · Caviar · Black · Gold Hardware
5-year projection with confidence band
| Year | Low band | Central | High band | vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $6,914 | $8,527 | $10,141 | -4.9% |
| Year 2 | $4,351 | $8,112 | $13,034 | -9.5% |
| Year 3 | $2,344 | $7,717 | $18,062 | -13.9% |
| Year 4 | $1,096 | $7,341 | $26,502 | -18.1% |
| Year 5 | $446 | $6,983 | $40,759 | -22.1% |
Methodology
Forward CAGR is a weighted blend of this variant's own observed CAGR 1y/3y/5y, with longer windows weighted higher (50% × 5y, 30% × 3y, 20% × 1y). This respects long-term trend over short-term noise. If only some windows have data, the blend re-normalizes over available terms.
Volatility is derived from the standard deviation of the 90-day aggregation and annualized with a sqrt-time factor. Confidence band low/high = forward CAGR ± 1 volatility band, compounded over the horizon.
This is a backward-looking statistical projection. Future returns may differ from historical patterns — brand strategy changes, supply rationing changes, and macro shocks can break the pattern.
Read the CAGR methodology or compare with Bag vs S&P 500.