Hermès Kelly 25 Epsom Noir (Black) Gold Hardware deep-dive: $24,451 median, 106 sales sample
Variant deep-dive on the Hermès Kelly 25 Epsom Noir (Black) Gold Hardware as of 2026-05-12.
The Kelly 25 in Epsom is one of the most-watched configurations in our research. Together with the Birkin 25, it represents the small-format Hermès secondary market in its purest form — supply is rationed at retail, demand is concentrated, and pricing dynamics are tighter than on larger sizes.
For buyers and sellers we'd emphasize one Kelly-specific consideration: construction style matters more here than on Birkin. Sellier (outside-stitched, more structured) and Retourné (inside-stitched, softer) carry different secondary-market liquidity profiles. The Sellier 25 in Epsom is the more formal, more collector-leaning configuration; Retourné 25 in Togo is the everyday choice. Our methodology aggregates both into the slug-level reading, but condition-aware readers should ask which variant we've sampled. The auction comparables section is the cleanest way to read the construction-mix question.
This deep-dive examines the secondary-market behavior of the Hermès Kelly 25 Epsom Noir (Black) Gold Hardware, which trades at a 90-day median of $24,451 (IQR $23,057–$25,845; sample 106). At a US retail of $13,500, premium-to-retail stands at +81.1%. Three-year compound annual growth on the median price is -1.2%. Year-over-year the median nudged higher 0.7%. Public auction comparables from the trailing 24 months: 7 lots.
Key findings
- 0190-day median: $24,451 (sample 106).
- 02Premium to US retail: +81.1%.
- 033-year CAGR: -1.2%.
- 04Year-over-year median move: +0.7%.
- 05Auction comparables (24mo): 7 lots across major houses.
The Hermès Kelly 25 Epsom Noir (Black) Gold Hardware trades at a 90-day median secondary price of $24,451 as of 2026-05-12, on an aggregated sample of 106 observations across our cross-platform mix.
The interquartile range — the middle 50% of the distribution — sits between $23,057 and $25,845.
US retail of $13,500 anchors a 81.1% secondary premium. An above-retail secondary mark is the structural footprint of constrained retail supply and persistent demand.
Quick reference
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| 90-day median | $24,451 |
| IQR (P25–P75) | $23,057–$25,845 |
| Sample size | 106 sales |
| Confidence | high |
| US retail anchor | $13,500 |
| Premium to retail | +81.1% |
| Year-over-year median | +0.7% |
| CAGR 1y | -2.64% |
| CAGR 3y | -1.22% |
| Auction comparables (24mo) | 7 lots |
Return trajectory
Year-over-year the median moved up incrementally 0.7%. On a 1-year compounding basis the variant returned -2.64%. 3-year compound annual growth: -1.22%.
For reference over the same horizon: US CPI compounded at roughly 3.5–4.5% per year, the S&P 500 nominal price index at 8–11%, and spot gold at 6–9%. The variant trailed inflation and all financial benchmarks on this window. See Bag vs S&P 500 for the interactive comparator.
A 1.2% 3-year CAGR signals depreciation in nominal terms. In real terms, the variant has lost purchasing power across the period.
Peer variants in this model
Sibling variants of the Kelly ranked by 90-day median secondary price. This puts the 25 Epsom Noir (Black) Gold Hardware configuration in context relative to other size/material/color combinations from the same model line.
| Variant | Median | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 25 · Togo · Noir (Black) | $26,541 | 177 |
| 25 · Epsom · Gold | $26,374 | 120 |
| 25 · Togo · Étoupe | $26,332 | 171 |
| 28 · Togo · Gold | $23,556 | 104 |
| 28 · Epsom · Noir (Black) | $23,164 | 178 |
| 28 · Togo · Étoupe | $22,972 | 87 |
| 28 · Togo · Noir (Black) | $22,566 | 138 |
| 32 · Togo · Gold | $20,452 | 157 |
Regional retail context
Boutique retail across 10 countries provides the cross-border anchor for premium-to-retail. See the full regional arbitrage view for this variant.
| Country | Retail (USD eq) |
|---|---|
| AE | $12,825 |
| DE | $12,690 |
| FR | $12,420 |
| GB | $13,365 |
| HK | $11,880 |
| IT | $12,555 |
| JP | $10,800 |
| KR | $12,150 |
| SG | $13,500 |
| US | $13,500 |
Auction comparables
Public auction results for this variant in the trailing 24 months from major houses. Hammer prices shown; buyer's premium typically adds ~27% across Christie's, Sotheby's, and Heritage on luxury accessories.
| Date | House | Hammer | Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-30 | Heritage Auctions | $21,790 | Excellent |
| 2025-09-30 | Christie's | $21,151 | Excellent |
| 2025-06-30 | Heritage Auctions | $21,773 | Very Good |
| 2025-03-30 | Christie's | $20,662 | Excellent |
| 2024-12-30 | Christie's | $21,878 | Good |
| 2024-09-30 | Sotheby's | $21,664 | Excellent |
| 2024-06-30 | Christie's | $20,438 | Excellent |
Auction-comparable median hammer is $21,664 against the variant's $24,451 cross-platform median. Auction tends to attract higher-condition lots with stronger provenance; minor premium to typical secondary is expected.
Median time series
| Period end | Median | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | $24,785 | 137 |
| 2026-01-31 | $25,748 | 85 |
| 2026-02-28 | $24,871 | 116 |
| 2026-03-31 | $24,409 | 98 |
| 2026-04-30 | $25,018 | 83 |
| 2026-05-31 | $24,451 | 106 |
Featured in Bagonomics Research
This variant has been named in recent Bagonomics quarterly index reports as a notable mover. Cross-references below let you read the broader quarterly context this variant was part of:
- Cited as largest drag (-1.5% return) in Investment Grade Index closes Q1 2026 fell 0.1%, led by Hermès Birkin 25
- Cited as largest drag (-1.5% return) in Hermès Index rose 0.4% in Q1 2026, led by Hermès Birkin 30
- Cited as largest drag (-1.5% return) in Q1 2026 Bag Market Index: rose 0.6% on the quarter, led by Hermès Birkin 30
Configuration anatomy
Every Bagonomics aggregation is variant-specific — meaning size, leather, color, and hardware are all separately tracked. Each attribute carries its own pricing fingerprint:
- Size (25): determines the broad buyer pool. Smaller sizes carry Instagram-driven demand premiums; larger sizes lean travel/work-use and tend to trade thinner.
- Leather (Epsom): the durability and aging profile of this leather defines part of the secondary-market story. See the glossary for our leather entries.
- Color (Noir (Black)): a neutral color anchors liquidity; rare colors compound premium-to-retail because supply is constrained and demand persists.
- Hardware (Gold Hardware): determines pairing aesthetics — gold-tone hardware typically commands a small but consistent premium over silver-tone equivalents.
Investment positioning
On our four-tier framework the Hermès Kelly 25 Epsom Noir (Black) Gold Hardware sits in the investment-grade segment, with a 3-year compound annual return that reads as depreciation territory — losing real purchasing power across the period. The investable interpretation depends on the holder's horizon: for short-term (12–24 month) decisions the operative metrics are premium-to-retail and current liquidity (90-day sample size); for multi-year horizons CAGR-3y/5y carry more weight.
Cross-asset framing: at a -1.2% 3-year CAGR the variant trailed inflation by a meaningful margin, marking real-terms negative. See Bag vs S&P 500 for the interactive cross-asset comparator.
Forward considerations
Premium-to-retail above 25% is in the upper band of our coverage universe. Configurations trading at this level historically compress 20-40% of the premium when retail price hikes happen — Hermès quarterly pricing reviews are the relevant signal to watch. Auction comparables this trailing 24 months stand at 7 documented lots — sufficient to anchor provenance-positive sales above the secondary-market median. Sample-size depth (106 90-day observations) underwrites high-confidence statistical readouts; any next-quarter move will be detected within 30-45 days of materializing in the sales mix.
Methodology
Variant statistics derive from cross-platform sales aggregated into a 90-day rolling window; we compute median, percentiles, and sample. Outliers are filtered with a 1.5×IQR Tukey fence prior to median calculation. CAGR is the geometric annualized return between anchor aggregations. Premium-to-retail compares the latest 90-day median to current boutique retail in USD. Full statistical methodology at median and IQR methodology and CAGR methodology.
*Snapshot frozen at publication. Live data on this variant at live variant page. This is statistical analysis, not investment advice — Bagonomics is not an investment advisor.*
Variant statistics derive from cross-platform sales aggregated into a 90-day rolling window. CAGR is computed from this variant's median-price series with anchor dates aligned ±180 days from the target horizon. Peer comparison uses other variants from the same model. Auction comparables span major houses; hammer prices exclude buyer's premium unless otherwise stated. Methodology details at [median and IQR methodology](/methodology/topics/median-iqr) and [CAGR methodology](/methodology/topics/cagr).
Cite as: James Chen (2026). "Hermès Kelly 25 Epsom Noir (Black) Gold Hardware deep-dive: $24,451 median, 106 sales sample." Bagonomics Research. Available at bagonomics.com/research/v-hermes-kelly-kelly-25-epsom-noir-ghw-2026-05.
Reproducibility: The data snapshot used to write this article is frozen at publication. Download CSV · Download JSON · Live data may differ — see source data on the linked variant / index / brand pages.