Q1 2026 Discontinued Index: fell 1.2% on the quarter
Closing value 206.52; mild pullback against an annualized realized volatility of 6.3%.
The Discontinued Index is the structural-rarity track of our index family. Its components are bags whose retail production has ended; they trade exclusively on the secondary market, and supply has a hard ceiling. The expected long-run behavior is monotonic appreciation against active-production peers — and our six-year history broadly supports that thesis.
This quarter's reading reads in line with the multi-year trend: the index sits comfortably above its 2020 base and its decay rate is slower than what we observe on active-production Hermès configurations during pullback quarters. Readers should remember that discontinued does not mean illiquid — sample depth on the underlying components is thinner than the active universe, so we recommend reading our confidence labels carefully when drilling into individual variants.
The Discontinued Index ended the first quarter of 2026 at 206.52, slipped slightly -1.2% over the quarter (opening 208.93, intra-quarter high 210.88 on 2026-03-15, low 204.59 on 2026-01-28). Realized daily-return volatility annualized to 6.3%. Year-over-year Quarter-end composition includes 0 components across 0 brands.
Key findings
- 01Discontinued Index closed Q1 2026 at 206.52 (-1.2% QoQ).
- 02Intra-quarter range 204.59–210.88; annualized realized volatility 6.3%.
- 03Closing vs prior-quarter close: -0.83%.
Discontinued Index closed the first quarter of 2026 at 206.52, edged lower 1.2% from 208.93 at the start of the period.
The index touched a quarter-high of 210.88 on March 15, 2026 and a low of 204.59 on January 28, 2026.
Quarterly realized vol annualizes to 6.3%.
On a quarter-on-quarter close basis the index moved -0.83% (from 208.25 at the prior quarter-end to 206.52 at this quarter's last trading session).
Quarterly weakness of -1.2% translates to a meaningful real-terms loss against CPI; the Discontinued Index lost ground both nominally and against inflation.
Quarter overview
The Discontinued Index tracks 0 components across 0 brands, weighted by 12-month traded volume in our observation set (with a 12% single-component cap and 35% single-brand cap, both enforced at every quarterly rebalance). The full methodology is published at volume-weighting methodology.
Macro context
Setting the Discontinued Index's -1.2% quarter against headline financial-market benchmarks over the same window: the S&P 500 returned +3.0%, spot gold +4.5%, and US CPI moved +1.0% on the quarter. The Discontinued Index thus trailed inflation for the period; in real terms, the index lost purchasing power against the dollar.
The investable interpretation runs through the cross-asset framing: on a single-quarter basis the Discontinued Index is more correlated with luxury-spending dynamics than with broad equity beta, so quarter-to-quarter divergence vs the S&P is expected. The cleaner comparison is multi-quarter — over rolling 12-month windows the Discontinued Index family has historically delivered returns within the same band as the S&P with materially lower realized volatility. See Bag vs S&P 500 for the interactive comparator.
Volatility regime
Realized annualized volatility of 6.3% places this quarter in the subdued band for the Discontinued Index. For benchmark reference, the S&P 500 typically realizes 12–18% annualized over comparable quarters; gold realizes 10–15%; the broader Bagonomics universe averages 8–14% across the index family. Lower realized volatility in our indexes reflects the longer cadence of secondary-market price discovery on luxury handbags compared with continuously-traded financial instruments — a structural feature, not a defect of the data.
In risk-adjusted terms, the quarter's 1.2% absolute move on 6.3% annualized vol implies a per-unit-of-risk return of 0.18 — useful as a quick filter for comparing across the index family.
What to watch in the next quarter
Range-bound quarters like this one tend to compress IQR on the underlying components over the following 90-day window; expect tighter pricing dispersion before any directional move.
Methodology
Component-level returns use the 90-day rolling median price ending at the quarter boundary (with a ±30 day tolerance for boundary alignment). Index values are computed daily via a chained Laspeyres-style divisor that absorbs composition changes at quarterly rebalance dates; the chain preserves continuity through additions, removals, and weight changes. Square-root volume weighting compresses the gap between high-volume and low-volume components. Single-component cap is 12%; single-brand cap is 35%. Confidence label is low when fewer than 30 sales feed the underlying aggregate; high from 100. Full write-up at volume-weighting methodology and median and IQR methodology.
*Data snapshot frozen at publication. Underlying aggregations may revise as new sales feed the 90-day window; see the Discontinued Index live page at live Discontinued Index page for current values. This report is statistical analysis, not investment advice — Bagonomics is not an investment advisor.*
Per-component returns computed from the 90-day median price aggregate at quarter start (within ±30 days of the boundary) versus quarter end. Index value series follows the chained-divisor methodology with quarterly rebalance and square-root volume weighting described at /methodology/topics/volume-weighting. Volatility is the standard deviation of daily index returns, annualized by √252.
Cite as: James Chen (2026). "Q1 2026 Discontinued Index: fell 1.2% on the quarter." Bagonomics Research. Available at bagonomics.com/research/q-2026-q1-discontinued-index.
Reproducibility: The data snapshot used to write this article is frozen at publication. Download CSV · Download JSON · Live data may differ — see source data on the linked variant / index / brand pages.