Inside the Hermès Kelly 25 Epsom Noir (Black) Gold Hardware secondary market: $24,451 median
Variant deep-dive on the Hermès Kelly 25 Epsom Noir (Black) Gold Hardware as of 2026-07-01.
This deep-dive examines the secondary-market behavior of the Hermès Kelly 25 Epsom Noir (Black) Gold Hardware, which trades at a 90-day median of $24,451 (IQR $23,057–$25,845; sample 106). At a US retail of $13,500, premium-to-retail stands at +81.1%. Three-year compound annual growth on the median price is -1.2%. Year-over-year the median nudged higher 0.7%. Public auction comparables from the trailing 24 months: 6 lots.
Key findings
- 0190-day median: $24,451 (sample 106).
- 02Premium to US retail: +81.1%.
- 033-year CAGR: -1.2%.
- 04Year-over-year median move: +0.7%.
- 05Auction comparables (24mo): 6 lots across major houses.
The Hermès Kelly 25 Epsom Noir (Black) Gold Hardware trades at a 90-day median secondary price of $24,451 as of 2026-07-01, on an aggregated sample of 106 observations across our cross-platform mix.
The interquartile range — the middle 50% of the distribution — sits between $23,057 and $25,845.
US retail of $13,500 anchors a 81.1% secondary premium. An above-retail secondary mark is the structural footprint of constrained retail supply and persistent demand.
Quick reference
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| 90-day median | $24,451 |
| IQR (P25–P75) | $23,057–$25,845 |
| Sample size | 106 sales |
| Confidence | high |
| US retail anchor | $13,500 |
| Premium to retail | +81.1% |
| Year-over-year median | +0.7% |
| CAGR 1y | -1.66% |
| CAGR 3y | -1.22% |
| Auction comparables (24mo) | 6 lots |
Return trajectory
Year-over-year the median moved up incrementally 0.7%. On a 1-year compounding basis the variant returned -1.66%. 3-year compound annual growth: -1.22%.
For reference over the same horizon: US CPI compounded at roughly 3.5–4.5% per year, the S&P 500 nominal price index at 8–11%, and spot gold at 6–9%. The variant trailed inflation and all financial benchmarks on this window. See Bag vs S&P 500 for the interactive comparator.
Negative 1.2% 3-year CAGR puts the variant in the decliners segment of our universe.
Peer variants in this model
Sibling variants of the Kelly ranked by 90-day median secondary price. This puts the 25 Epsom Noir (Black) Gold Hardware configuration in context relative to other size/material/color combinations from the same model line.
| Variant | Median | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 25 · Togo · Noir (Black) | $26,541 | 177 |
| 25 · Epsom · Gold | $26,374 | 120 |
| 25 · Togo · Étoupe | $26,332 | 171 |
| 28 · Togo · Gold | $23,556 | 104 |
| 28 · Epsom · Noir (Black) | $23,164 | 178 |
| 28 · Togo · Étoupe | $22,972 | 87 |
| 28 · Togo · Noir (Black) | $22,566 | 138 |
| 32 · Togo · Gold | $20,452 | 157 |
Regional retail context
Boutique retail across 10 countries provides the cross-border anchor for premium-to-retail. See the full regional arbitrage view for this variant.
| Country | Retail (USD eq) |
|---|---|
| AE | $12,825 |
| DE | $12,690 |
| FR | $12,420 |
| GB | $13,365 |
| HK | $11,880 |
| IT | $12,555 |
| JP | $10,800 |
| KR | $12,150 |
| SG | $13,500 |
| US | $13,500 |
Auction comparables
Public auction results for this variant in the trailing 24 months from major houses. Hammer prices shown; buyer's premium typically adds ~27% across Christie's, Sotheby's, and Heritage on luxury accessories.
| Date | House | Hammer | Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-30 | Heritage Auctions | $21,790 | Excellent |
| 2025-09-30 | Christie's | $21,151 | Excellent |
| 2025-06-30 | Heritage Auctions | $21,773 | Very Good |
| 2025-03-30 | Christie's | $20,662 | Excellent |
| 2024-12-30 | Christie's | $21,878 | Good |
| 2024-09-30 | Sotheby's | $21,664 | Excellent |
Auction-comparable median hammer is $21,773 against the variant's $24,451 cross-platform median. Auction tends to attract higher-condition lots with stronger provenance; minor premium to typical secondary is expected.
Median time series
| Period end | Median | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | $24,785 | 137 |
| 2026-01-31 | $25,748 | 85 |
| 2026-02-28 | $24,871 | 116 |
| 2026-03-31 | $24,409 | 98 |
| 2026-04-30 | $25,018 | 83 |
| 2026-05-31 | $24,451 | 106 |
Featured in Bagonomics Research
This variant has been named in recent Bagonomics quarterly index reports as a notable mover. Cross-references below let you read the broader quarterly context this variant was part of:
- Cited as largest drag (-1.5% return) in Investment Grade Index closes Q1 2026 fell 0.1%, led by Hermès Birkin 25
- Cited as largest drag (-1.5% return) in Hermès Index rose 0.4% in Q1 2026, led by Hermès Birkin 30
- Cited as largest drag (-1.5% return) in Q1 2026 Bag Market Index: rose 0.6% on the quarter, led by Hermès Birkin 30
Configuration anatomy
Every Bagonomics aggregation is variant-specific — meaning size, leather, color, and hardware are all separately tracked. Each attribute carries its own pricing fingerprint:
- Size (25): determines the broad buyer pool. Smaller sizes carry Instagram-driven demand premiums; larger sizes lean travel/work-use and tend to trade thinner.
- Leather (Epsom): the durability and aging profile of this leather defines part of the secondary-market story. See the glossary for our leather entries.
- Color (Noir (Black)): a neutral color anchors liquidity; rare colors compound premium-to-retail because supply is constrained and demand persists.
- Hardware (Gold Hardware): determines pairing aesthetics — gold-tone hardware typically commands a small but consistent premium over silver-tone equivalents.
Investment positioning
On our four-tier framework the Hermès Kelly 25 Epsom Noir (Black) Gold Hardware sits in the investment-grade segment, with a 3-year compound annual return that reads as depreciation territory — losing real purchasing power across the period. The investable interpretation depends on the holder's horizon: for short-term (12–24 month) decisions the operative metrics are premium-to-retail and current liquidity (90-day sample size); for multi-year horizons CAGR-3y/5y carry more weight.
Cross-asset framing: at a -1.2% 3-year CAGR the variant trailed inflation by a meaningful margin, marking real-terms negative. See Bag vs S&P 500 for the interactive cross-asset comparator.
Forward considerations
Premium-to-retail above 25% is in the upper band of our coverage universe. Configurations trading at this level historically compress 20-40% of the premium when retail price hikes happen — Hermès quarterly pricing reviews are the relevant signal to watch. Auction comparables this trailing 24 months stand at 6 documented lots — sufficient to anchor provenance-positive sales above the secondary-market median. Sample-size depth (106 90-day observations) underwrites high-confidence statistical readouts; any next-quarter move will be detected within 30-45 days of materializing in the sales mix.
Methodology
Variant statistics derive from cross-platform sales aggregated into a 90-day rolling window; we compute median, percentiles, and sample. Outliers are filtered with a 1.5×IQR Tukey fence prior to median calculation. CAGR is the geometric annualized return between anchor aggregations. Premium-to-retail compares the latest 90-day median to current boutique retail in USD. Full statistical methodology at median and IQR methodology and CAGR methodology.
*Snapshot frozen at publication. Live data on this variant at live variant page. This is statistical analysis, not investment advice — Bagonomics is not an investment advisor.*
Variant statistics derive from cross-platform sales aggregated into a 90-day rolling window. CAGR is computed from this variant's median-price series with anchor dates aligned ±180 days from the target horizon. Peer comparison uses other variants from the same model. Auction comparables span major houses; hammer prices exclude buyer's premium unless otherwise stated. Methodology details at [median and IQR methodology](/methodology/topics/median-iqr) and [CAGR methodology](/methodology/topics/cagr).
Cite as: Bagonomics Research (2026). "Inside the Hermès Kelly 25 Epsom Noir (Black) Gold Hardware secondary market: $24,451 median." Bagonomics Research. Available at bagonomics.com/research/hermes-kelly-25-epsom-noir-ghw-2026-07.
Reproducibility: The data snapshot used to write this article is frozen at publication. Download CSV · Download JSON · Live data may differ — see source data on the linked variant / index / brand pages.