Hermès Index fell 38.6% in Q2 2026, led by Hermès Birkin 30
Closing value 94.46; sharp pullback against an annualized realized volatility of 63.3%.
The Hermès Index ended the second quarter of 2026 at 94.46, posted heavy losses -38.6% over the quarter (opening 153.79, intra-quarter high 154.20 on 2026-04-03, low 94.30 on 2026-05-12). Realized daily-return volatility annualized to 63.3%. Year-over-year Quarter-end composition includes 24 components across 1 brands. Largest weighted contribution came from Hermès Birkin 30 (+1.9% on the quarter). Largest drag was Hermès Kelly 32 (-2.3%).
Key findings
- 01Hermès Index closed Q2 2026 at 94.46 (-38.6% QoQ).
- 02Intra-quarter range 94.30–154.20; annualized realized volatility 63.3%.
- 03Top contributor: Hermès Birkin 30 (+1.9%).
- 04Largest drag: Hermès Kelly 32 (-2.3%).
- 05Closing vs prior-quarter close: -38.48%.
Quarter-end pricing put the Hermès Index at 94.46, reflecting a 38.6% pullback over the three-month period.
The index touched a quarter-high of 154.20 on April 3, 2026 and a low of 94.30 on May 12, 2026.
Standard deviation of daily moves annualized to 63.3%.
On a quarter-on-quarter close basis the index moved -38.48% (from 153.53 at the prior quarter-end to 94.46 at this quarter's last trading session).
Quarterly weakness of -38.6% translates to a meaningful real-terms loss against CPI; the Hermès Index lost ground both nominally and against inflation.
Quarter overview
The Hermès Index tracks 24 components across 1 brands, weighted by 12-month traded volume in our observation set (with a 12% single-component cap and 35% single-brand cap, both enforced at every quarterly rebalance). The full methodology is published at volume-weighting methodology.
Internals: 13 positive, 11 negative, 54% breadth. Median component return: 0.17%.
Top weighted contributors
Components ranked by contribution to the index this quarter (component return × current weight). Materials and color codes follow Bagonomics conventions; see glossary for definitions.
| Variant | Weight | Q return | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hermès Birkin — 30 · Togo · Étoupe | 5.08% | +1.88% | +0.10% |
| Hermès Birkin — 30 · Epsom · Noir (Black) | 5.08% | +1.65% | +0.08% |
| Hermès Kelly — 28 · Epsom · Noir (Black) | 4.68% | +1.59% | +0.07% |
| Hermès Kelly — 28 · Togo · Noir (Black) | 4.68% | +1.50% | +0.07% |
| Hermès Birkin — 30 · Epsom · Craie | 5.08% | +0.69% | +0.04% |
Out front this quarter was Hermès Birkin 30 (1.9%). The runner-up contribution came from Hermès Birkin 30, returning 1.6%. Next on the table was Hermès Kelly 28 at 1.6%.
Largest drags
Components weighing on the index — ranked by negative contribution (component return × current weight).
| Variant | Weight | Q return | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hermès Kelly — 32 · Togo · Noir (Black) | 3.00% | -2.28% | -0.07% |
| Hermès Birkin — 35 · Togo · Gold | 3.41% | -1.96% | -0.07% |
| Hermès Kelly — 28 · Togo · Étoupe | 4.68% | -1.19% | -0.06% |
| Hermès Birkin — 25 · Epsom · Noir (Black) | 4.25% | -1.24% | -0.05% |
| Hermès Birkin — 30 · Togo · Gold | 5.08% | -0.96% | -0.05% |
Macro context
Setting the Hermès Index's -38.6% quarter against headline financial-market benchmarks over the same window: the S&P 500 returned 0.0%, spot gold 0.0%, and US CPI moved 0.0% on the quarter. The Hermès Index thus trailed inflation for the period; in real terms, the index lost purchasing power against the dollar.
The investable interpretation runs through the cross-asset framing: on a single-quarter basis the Hermès Index is more correlated with luxury-spending dynamics than with broad equity beta, so quarter-to-quarter divergence vs the S&P is expected. The cleaner comparison is multi-quarter — over rolling 12-month windows the Hermès Index family has historically delivered returns within the same band as the S&P with materially lower realized volatility. See Bag vs S&P 500 for the interactive comparator.
Volatility regime
Realized annualized volatility of 63.3% places this quarter in the stressed band for the Hermès Index. For benchmark reference, the S&P 500 typically realizes 12–18% annualized over comparable quarters; gold realizes 10–15%; the broader Bagonomics universe averages 8–14% across the index family. Lower realized volatility in our indexes reflects the longer cadence of secondary-market price discovery on luxury handbags compared with continuously-traded financial instruments — a structural feature, not a defect of the data.
In risk-adjusted terms, the quarter's 38.6% absolute move on 63.3% annualized vol implies a per-unit-of-risk return of 0.61 — useful as a quick filter for comparing across the index family.
What to watch in the next quarter
Pullbacks of this size in the Hermès Index have historically been followed by sample-stabilization phases — narrowing breadth in the next quarter is the most common pattern. The leader-to-laggard return spread this quarter was 4.2 percentage points — tight, suggesting a coordinated move across the universe rather than idiosyncratic dispersion.
Methodology
Component-level returns use the 90-day rolling median price ending at the quarter boundary (with a ±30 day tolerance for boundary alignment). Index values are computed daily via a chained Laspeyres-style divisor that absorbs composition changes at quarterly rebalance dates; the chain preserves continuity through additions, removals, and weight changes. Square-root volume weighting compresses the gap between high-volume and low-volume components. Single-component cap is 12%; single-brand cap is 35%. Confidence label is low when fewer than 30 sales feed the underlying aggregate; high from 100. Full write-up at volume-weighting methodology and median and IQR methodology.
*Data snapshot frozen at publication. Underlying aggregations may revise as new sales feed the 90-day window; see the Hermès Index live page at live Hermès Index page for current values. This report is statistical analysis, not investment advice — Bagonomics is not an investment advisor.*
Per-component returns computed from the 90-day median price aggregate at quarter start (within ±30 days of the boundary) versus quarter end. Index value series follows the chained-divisor methodology with quarterly rebalance and square-root volume weighting described at /methodology/topics/volume-weighting. Volatility is the standard deviation of daily index returns, annualized by √252.
Cite as: Bagonomics Research (2026). "Hermès Index fell 38.6% in Q2 2026, led by Hermès Birkin 30." Bagonomics Research. Available at bagonomics.com/research/hermes-index-q2-2026.
Reproducibility: The data snapshot used to write this article is frozen at publication. Download CSV · Download JSON · Live data may differ — see source data on the linked variant / index / brand pages.