CAGR
Compound Annual Growth Rate, annualized return.
CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) is the geometric mean annualized return over a multi-year period. Bagonomics reports CAGR 1y, 3y, and 5y per variant, computed from changes in the median secondary-market price across our aggregation history. CAGR is the only annualization formula consistent with compounding — arithmetic averages of yearly returns mislead in volatile assets.
Frequently asked
What does a 6% CAGR mean for a Birkin?
If the bag's median was $10,000 at the start of the period and grew at 6% CAGR for 5 years, the median today is $13,382. That's the geometric compounding result, not a simple 30% growth.
Can CAGR be negative?
Yes. Variants in the declining phase of their lifecycle (some Louis Vuitton coated canvas configurations, some Dior pieces from discontinued lines) post negative CAGR. We do not hide negative CAGR — it's part of an honest data layer.
Why is my CAGR 5y based on 3.4 years?
When the variant has less than 5 years of aggregations on file, we use the actual elapsed years between the oldest available aggregation and the latest. The metric is annualized correctly to that actual elapsed time.
Related terms
- Premium to Retail · Secondary median vs current boutique retail.
- IQR (Interquartile Range) · P25-P75 spread, tightness of pricing.
- Sample Size · Number of data points behind a statistic.
- Sell-Through Rate · Share of listings sold in a window.
- Waitlist (Hermès) · Soft allocation process for top-tier handbags.
- VAT Refund · Tourist tax refund on EU/JP/KR purchases.